Flemington R2 | 1200m BM90
Sat 28 Feb | 12:45pm | 11r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #8 GOLD MEDALLIST @ $9.50 - 0.47u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | EW EV | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gold Medallist | $9.50 | 11% | +4.5% | 36.4% | +9.1% | VALUE |
| 3 | Fission | $18.00 | 6% | +8.0% | 20.5% | +7.8% | WATCH |
| 1 | Rue De Royale | $3.10 | 26% | -19.4% | 68.7% | - | PASS |
| 7 | Behaviour | $7.00 | 13% | -9.0% | 36.8% | -8.5% | PASS |
| 5 | Regal Tycoon | $7.50 | 12% | -10.0% | 38.2% | -4.9% | WATCH |
| 11 | Legacy Bay | $4.80 | 14% | -32.8% | 42.3% | -25.2% | PASS |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Plc% | PlcSpec | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rue De Royale | 8 | $3.10 | 3-5-1-3-6-2 | BM90 | 69% | 1.00 | PASS |
| 2 | Dirty Grin | 10 | $13.00 | 9-x-1-7-4-9 | BM84 | 23% | - | PASS |
| 3 | Fission | 2 | $18.00 | 2-9-5-1-3-6 | BM84 | 21% | - | WATCH |
| 4 | Call Him Iggy | 6 | $27.00 | 4-5-3-1-8-x | BM70 | 13% | - | PASS |
| 5 | Regal Tycoon | 1 | $7.50 | 1-2-1-1-1-9 | BM70 | 38% | 3.26 | WATCH |
| 6 | Flying Mikki | 9 | $15.00 | 2-4-3-x-3-2 | BM74 | 20% | - | PASS |
| 7 | Behaviour | 5 | $7.00 | x-3-5-4-3 | BM90 | 37% | - | PASS |
| 8 | Gold Medallist | 4 | $9.50 | 1-1-1-1-x-7 | BM78 | 36% | 3.03 | VALUE |
| 9 | Wolfy | 7 | $16.00 | 9-x-9-x | BM78 | 13% | - | PASS |
| 10 | Harmonett | 11 | $61.00 | 5-1-1-x-1-8 | BM62 | 8% | - | PASS |
| 11 | Legacy Bay | 3 | $4.80 | x-3-3-2-5-3 | BM74 | 42% | - | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Rue De Royale has best recent times (70.51s BM90, 2nd beaten 0.06L) but is short in the market at $3.10. Gold Medallist won 4 of 5 career starts but untested at metro level.
Pace: MODERATE scenario likely. Rue De Royale and Gold Medallist both race on-pace. Regal Tycoon and Behaviour likely to sit midfield. Enough speed to ensure genuine tempo without being suicidal.
Class: Significant class rise for Gold Medallist (BM78 to BM90), Regal Tycoon (BM70 to BM90), and Harmonett (BM62 to BM90). Rue De Royale, Behaviour, and Fission have recent BM90 form. Legacy Bay is heavily backed ($4.80) off BM74 form which is concerning.
Bias: Neutral bias expected on Good 4 (LOW confidence). No rail position specified. Rain forecast may shift conditions during the day.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Gold Medallist is the each-way play at $9.50. Four wins from five starts (80% strike rate) shows enormous talent, and the Peter Moody stable doesn’t often bring horses to Flemington unprepared. The one failure (7th at Sale BM78, soft track, beaten 0.3L in a 7-horse field) was a narrow loss relative to the field. Barrier 4 is ideal for a forward-running type at Flemington 1200m. The +9.1% EW expected value is the best in the race, and place specialist score of 3.03 confirms strong place reliability. The class rise from BM78 to BM90 is the key risk, but the talent ceiling justifies the bet at this price.
Regal Tycoon (#5) is a strong WATCH at $7.50 - extraordinary 94% place rate (15 placings from 16 starts) and place specialist score of 3.26, but 0 wins from 5 starts at 1200m and jumping from BM70 to BM90 is a huge class leap. The market has priced the place consistency fairly.
KEY RISKS
- Class rise: Gold Medallist jumps from BM78 provincial to BM90 metro - significant step up
- Rain: Forecast rain could deteriorate track; Gold Medallist has soft/heavy form (3 wins from 4 starts on wet) which is actually a positive if it shifts
kelly: 0.47% | ev: +$0.09/u | score: 52.0/100