Flemington R3 | 1400m BM90
Sat 28 Feb | 1:20pm | 8r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #2 RED GALAXY @ $7.00 - 0.5u EW VALUE: #6 INEXORABLE @ $12.00 - 0.45u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Watersports | $2.90 | 42.0 | 24% | -30.4% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Red Galaxy | $7.00 | 58.0 | 16% | +12.0% | VALUE | 0.50% |
| 1 | Great Maximus | $6.50 | 44.0 | 15% | -2.5% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Bons To Riches | $5.00 | 38.0 | 14% | -30.0% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Inexorable | $12.00 | 50.0 | 10% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.45% |
| 3 | Little Jack | $8.50 | 30.0 | 8% | -32.0% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Maisy | $7.00 | 25.0 | 7% | -51.0% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Rhinoceros | $35.00 | 18.0 | 3% | +5.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Great Maximus | 4 | $6.50 | 82 | OK | 88 | 0% | Neutral | 44.0 | WATCH |
| 2 | Red Galaxy | 5 | $7.00 | 85 | OK | 92 | 0% | Neutral | 58.0 | VALUE |
| 3 | Little Jack | 1 | $8.50 | 80 | OK | 82 | 0% | Neutral | 30.0 | PASS |
| 4 | Rhinoceros | 8 | $35.00 | 68 | POOR | 78 | 0% | Neutral | 18.0 | PASS |
| 5 | Bons To Riches | 7 | $5.00 | 78 | GOOD | 74 | 0% | Neutral | 38.0 | PASS |
| 6 | Inexorable | 3 | $12.00 | 76 | OK | 70 | 0% | Neutral | 50.0 | VALUE |
| 7 | Watersports | 6 | $2.90 | 84 | GOOD | 72 | 0% | Hot | 42.0 | WATCH |
| 8 | Maisy | 2 | $7.00 | 74 | OK | 78 | 0% | Neutral | 25.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Red Galaxy has the best speed figure (85) off a BM100 placing at Sandown last prep; Great Maximus (82) and Watersports (84) next best on recent progressive form. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No confirmed leaders; Watersports and Bons To Riches likely to settle forward. Stalkers and midfield runners should get a fair run. Class: Red Galaxy is the only runner with proven BM100 form (2nd Sandown 1400m). Most others are rising sharply - Watersports from BM66, Bons To Riches from BM74, Inexorable from BM70. Bias: Neutral track bias (low confidence). Good 4 surface, no rail position specified. No significant advantage to any running style or barrier position.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#2 Red Galaxy ($7.00 EW): The standout form reference is a 2nd in BM100 company at Sandown (1400m) last prep - comfortably the best race in this field. Resumes off 41 days with two strong jumpout wins. Greg Eurell has the horse well placed for a first-up tilt. Career 70% place rate makes him a strong EW proposition (place specialist score 1.82). Lachlan Neindorf is a capable jockey. At $7.00, there’s +12% edge on win and +12.8% EW expected value.
#6 Inexorable ($12.00 EW): Won 3 straight last prep at BM64-70 level showing progressive improvement. Has proven 1400m form (2 wins from 5 starts at the distance). Grahame Begg is an astute trainer. The concern is first-up form (9th Flemington, 5th Caulfield) but the $12 price provides ample compensation. Career 75% place rate and a place specialist score of 3.13 make this an excellent EW play at +19.1% EW EV. Inside barrier (3) in small field is ideal.
KEY RISKS
- Red Galaxy: Resuming off 41 days - first-up record untested at metro BM90 level; 0/4 at Flemington
- Inexorable: Poor first-up form (9th, 5th); massive class rise from BM70 to BM90
- General: Watersports is clearly the most talented horse and could win easily if handling the class rise - the market has this right directionally but has over-bet the price
EW VALUE SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Specialist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Red Galaxy | +12.0% | +13.5% | +12.8% | 1.82 (Strong) |
| 6 | Inexorable | +20.0% | +18.1% | +19.1% | 3.13 (Strong) |
#2 Red Galaxy: kelly 0.5% | ew_ev: +12.8% | score: 58.0/100 #6 Inexorable: kelly 0.45% | ew_ev: +19.1% | score: 50.0/100