Flemington R6 | 1100m BM78
Sat 28 Feb | 3:05pm | 11r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #4 WINTERY @ $9.00 - 0.8u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Educated | $3.40 | 65.0 | 22% | -25.2% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Wintery | $9.00 | 58.5 | 14% | +26.0% | VALUE | 0.81% |
| 10 | Headbanger | $6.00 | 52.0 | 15% | -10.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Bel Merci | $4.20 | 45.0 | 11% | -53.8% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Gwen’s Girl | $8.50 | 50.0 | 12% | +2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Thanks Gorgeous | $8.00 | 44.0 | 10% | -20.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Speed | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bel Merci | 8 | $4.20 | 75 | OK | 76 | 0% | Neutral | 45.0 | PASS |
| 2 | Thanks Gorgeous | 10 | $8.00 | 75 | OK | 78 | 0% | Neutral | 44.0 | PASS |
| 3 | Yum | 7 | $26 | 65 | POOR | 70 | 0% | Neutral | 28.0 | PASS |
| 4 | Wintery | 3 | $9.00 | 80 | GOOD | 78 | 0% | Neutral | 58.5 | VALUE |
| 5 | La Roux | 6 | $23 | 72 | OK | 72 | 0% | Neutral | 32.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Educated | 1 | $3.40 | 82 | GOOD | 82 | 0% | Hot | 65.0 | WATCH |
| 7 | Befuddle | 2 | $26 | 68 | OK | 75 | 0% | Neutral | 38.0 | PASS |
| 8 | Gwen’s Girl | 5 | $8.50 | 77 | GOOD | 74 | 0% | Neutral | 50.0 | WATCH |
| 10 | Headbanger | 4 | $6.00 | 79 | GOOD | 74 | 0% | Neutral | 52.0 | WATCH |
| 11 | Star Of Omaha | 9 | $51 | 60 | POOR | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 22.0 | PASS |
| 12 | Superliv | 11 | $41 | 62 | POOR | 64 | 0% | Neutral | 24.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Educated tops the speed figures (82) from a dominant Cranbourne win; Wintery close behind (80) with the fastest raw 1000m time (56.34s Pakenham) in this field. Headbanger’s 8L maiden romp impressive but class untested. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. La Roux and Wintery likely lead or press; Educated can track from barrier 1. On-pace runners favoured at Flemington 1100m. Class: Educated rises from BM64 provincial to BM78 metro - significant jump but wins were commanding. Wintery’s Kev Hayes 2nd (Listed level) is the best class line. Headbanger and Gwen’s Girl both rising sharply from maiden/BM64. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. Inside barriers marginally preferred at Flemington 1100m.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Wintery at $9.00 represents strong each-way value. Her 2nd in the Kev Hayes Stakes (beaten 1.5L) is the best form reference in the race - that was Listed class, well above this BM78. She ran the fastest 1000m time of any runner in this field (56.34s Pakenham) and her form pattern of 1-2-6-1-2 shows consistency. Barrier 3 is ideal at Flemington 1100m and her 70% place rate (7 from 10 starts) makes her a strong place specialist (score: 2.68). The EW EV of +26.9% is compelling. Educated is the class runner but is short enough at $3.40 that the value sits with Wintery at the price.
KEY RISKS
- Class rise for most runners creates uncertainty - only Wintery (via Kev Hayes) has tested this level
- Rain forecast could shift track condition; Wintery has 0/1 on soft (no wins) vs all good track form
- Educated unbeaten and could simply be well above this grade - if so, $3.40 is fair
EW METRICS
| Horse | Win% | Place% | PlaceSpec | EW EV | Path |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wintery | 14% | 42.6% | 2.68 | +26.9% | A+B |
| Gwen’s Girl | 12% | 36.8% | 2.22 | +3.9% | - |
| Headbanger | 15% | 44.0% | 2.22 | -5.5% | - |
kelly: 0.81% | ev: +$0.27/u | score: 58.5/100 | source: sportsbetform.com.au