Randwick R1 | 1100m BM68

Sat 28 Feb | 12:30pm | 13r | Soft 7

ACTION

STRONG VALUE: #2 SHAGGY @ $8.50 - 1.5u EW STRONG VALUE: #3 ZOUTASTIC @ $12.00 - 1.0u EW

EDGE TABLE

#	Horse	Odds	Score	Win%	Edge	Tier	Kelly
2	Shaggy	8.50	61.6	14%	+19.0%	STRONG_VALUE	1.5u EW
3	Zoutastic	12.00	60.7	10%	+20.0%	STRONG_VALUE	1.0u EW
10	Bryant	4.00	46.5	20%	-20.0%	VALUE	-
5	Flightcrew	7.50	48.0	14%	+5.0%	VALUE	-
4	Zaragoza	11.00	42.0	9%	-1.0%	WATCH	-
6	Let’s Go Again	5.50	40.0	13%	-28.5%	WATCH	-

FIELD ANALYSIS

#	Horse	Bar	Odds	SpFig	Pace	Class	Bias	Conn	Score	Tier
2	Shaggy	5	8.50	76	GOOD	79	0%	Neutral	61.6	STRONG_VALUE
3	Zoutastic	6	12.00	73	GOOD	76	0%	+Berry	60.7	STRONG_VALUE
10	Bryant	12	4.00	78	OK	79	0%	+Clark	46.5	VALUE
5	Flightcrew	4	7.50	75	GOOD	79	0%	Neutral	48.0	VALUE
4	Zaragoza	10	11.00	74	POOR	79	0%	+Rawiller	42.0	WATCH
7	Jambalaya	2	6.00	74	GOOD	79	0%	+McDonald	40.0	WATCH
6	Let’s Go Again	8	5.50	73	POOR	79	0%	Neutral	40.0	WATCH
1	Los Padres	9	26.00	65	OK	68	0%	Neutral	30.0	WATCH
8	Apache Breeze	13	21.00	68	POOR	79	0%	Neutral	28.0	PASS
13	All Too Wild	1	41.00	67	GOOD	72	0%	Neutral	32.0	WATCH
9	Opal Fields	3	46.00	66	POOR	72	0%	Neutral	25.0	PASS
11	The New Sinatra	11	27.00	64	POOR	70	0%	Neutral	26.0	PASS
12	Change My Address	7	17.00	62	OK	72	0%	Neutral	24.0	PASS

ANALYSIS

Speed: Bryant has the best raw figure (78) but off a weaker BM64 at Warwick Farm; Shaggy’s 76 at BM72 Canterbury is the most impressive at-level figure. Zoutastic’s dominant 1000m Hawkesbury win (58.06s) suggests pace ability to burn. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected - Zoutastic, All Too Wild and Los Padres likely to push forward. Suits midfield runners like Shaggy who can stalk and pounce. No obvious leader collapse scenario. Class: Dropping class for Shaggy (BM72 to BM68) and Zoutastic (BM72 to BM68) are key positives. Bryant rises from BM64 maiden-break quality. Zaragoza drops from BM84 but has 0 wins from 6 at Randwick 1100m. Bias: Soft 7 track - neutral bias with LOW confidence. Shaggy’s soft track form (2/7, 29%) is adequate. Bryant untested on Soft 7 (0/2 on soft, 1 placing). Zoutastic has poor soft record (0/6, 0 wins) which is a concern.

SELECTION RATIONALE

Shaggy ($8.50 EW) is the primary selection. The 3yo gelding drops from BM72 to BM68, has strong recent form (2nd beaten 0.14L, 3rd beaten 0.19L at Canterbury BM72), and is a confirmed STRONG PLACE SPECIALIST (score 2.47, career 73% placing rate). Barrier 5 is ideal in a 13-runner field, and Mollie Fitzgerald’s 3kg claim provides a genuine weight advantage. The EW value is strong via Path A (EV +12.3%, place prob 37%) and Path B (specialist score 2.47). Fair odds $7.14 vs market $8.50 gives +19% edge.

Zoutastic ($12.00 EW) is the secondary selection. Tommy Berry riding is a plus, and the horse is a place specialist (score 2.33) who won impressively at Hawkesbury (3.56L margin). The concern is 0/6 on soft tracks, but the EW value via Path B (specialist + odds $12) is compelling at +20% edge. The 12.3% EW EV justifies a smaller stake.

KEY RISKS

Soft 7 ground: Zoutastic 0/6 on soft - genuine concern; Shaggy more proven (2/7) but not dominant
Bryant first-time blinkers: Favourite at $4.00 with blinkers on, wide barrier 12 - if gear change sparks improvement, could take this; but no value at the price (-20% edge)
Market compression: If Shaggy firms below $7.00, EW value evaporates - monitor pre-race

EACH-WAY DETAIL

Horse	Win EV	Place EV	EW EV	Place%	Specialist	Path
Shaggy	+19.0%	+5.5%	+12.3%	37%	2.47	A+B
Zoutastic	+20.0%	+4.6%	+12.3%	28%	2.33	B