Randwick R10 | 1200m BM88
Sat 28 Feb | 5:55pm | 14r | Soft 7 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #1 CLOUDLAND @ $21 - 0.5u EW VALUE: #5 CHARCOALS @ $14 - 0.4u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | EW EV | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cloudland | $21 | 6.5% | +36.5% | 19.6% | +28.2% | VALUE | 0.46% |
| 5 | Charcoals | $14 | 8.5% | +19.0% | 24.8% | +12.6% | VALUE | 0.37% |
| 12 | Mal Coupe | $3.70 | 19% | -29.7% | 52.6% | - | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Bev’s Nine | $5.50 | 14% | -23.0% | 41.5% | - | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Gatsby’s | $8.50 | 10% | -15.0% | 24.5% | - | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Roselyn’s Star | $4.20 | 11% | -53.8% | 37.2% | - | PASS | - |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Wet | C/D | Pace | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cloudland | 3 | $21 | 17154 | 6/15 W | 0/3 C, 4/10 D | ON-PACE | VALUE |
| 2 | Bandi’s Boy | 1 | $35 | 46449 | 3/13 W | 3/15 C, 3/11 D | ON-PACE | PASS |
| 3 | Well Timed | 2 | $19 | 22526 | 1/9 W | 3/10 C, 2/3 D | MIDFIELD | PASS |
| 4 | Lilac | 4 | $15 | 31x8x | 2/3 W | 1/5 C, 1/7 D | MIDFIELD | WATCH |
| 5 | Charcoals | 12 | $14 | 61114 | 1/3 W | 0/0 C, 4/5 D | MIDFIELD | VALUE |
| 6 | Roselyn’s Star | 10 | $4.20 | 62121 | 0/5 W | 0/1 C, 0/2 D | ON-PACE | PASS |
| 7 | Eye Of The Fire | 13 | $23 | 55x12 | 3/12 W | 1/4 C, 1/10 D | MIDFIELD | PASS |
| 8 | Gatsby’s | 9 | $8.50 | 4x712 | 2/8 W | 1/5 C, 1/9 D | ON-PACE | WATCH |
| 9 | Mogo Magic | 6 | $18 | 14933 | 4/12 W | 2/6 C, 1/6 D | MIDFIELD | PASS |
| 10 | Monte Kate | 7 | $27 | x211x | 3/15 W | 0/2 C, 5/13 D | ON-PACE | PASS |
| 11 | Bev’s Nine | 8 | $5.50 | 1111x | 3/3 W | 0/0 C, 0/0 D | ON-PACE | WATCH |
| 12 | Mal Coupe | 11 | $3.70 | 2111x | 4/6 W | 1/1 C, 0/0 D | ON-PACE | WATCH |
| 13 | Hanau | 14 | $61 | 17x74 | 2/11 W | 0/2 C, 3/11 D | MIDFIELD | PASS |
| 14 | Miss Jennifer | 5 | $151 | 76257 | 3/19 W | 1/4 C, 4/11 D | ON-PACE | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Charcoals has the best 1200m figures (4 wins from 5 at the trip including BM84 wins), Cloudland won BM94 at 1200m on heavy at Rosehill. Both are sharp enough at this class. Pace: MODERATE - multiple on-pace types (Bev’s Nine, Mal Coupe, Roselyn’s Star, Cloudland) should ensure honest tempo in the soft. No clear speed-on scenario but enough pace to suit runners with tactical ability. Class: Mal Coupe is the big query - jumping from BM72 to BM88 is a significant class rise despite the impressive winning streak. Bev’s Nine (BM78 last start) also makes a huge leap. Meanwhile Cloudland and Charcoals have proven BM88+ form. Bias: Low confidence on bias data. Soft 7 with rain - conditions will deteriorate further. Horses with wet-track credentials are essential. Roselyn’s Star (0/5 soft/heavy) is a strong fade.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Cloudland ($21 EW) is the standout value play at massive odds. He won a BM94 on heavy at Rosehill (1200m) and has a 6/15 strike rate on soft/heavy tracks. Barrier 3 is ideal, and while he’s resuming off 113 days, he’s trialled twice (4th and 5th in competitive trials at Randwick/Wyong). At $21, the market grossly underestimates his wet-track ability at this class. Place specialist score of 4.3 adds EW appeal.
Charcoals ($14 EW) has a remarkable 4/5 record at 1200m including BM84 wins in Melbourne. The 140-day absence is a concern, but he trialled twice (3rd at Randwick, 4th at Canterbury) showing readiness. Tommy Berry booking is a positive. At $14 with +19% win edge and +12.6% EW EV, he offers genuine value despite the wide gate.
MARKET WATCH
Mal Coupe ($3.70) and Bev’s Nine ($5.50) dominate the market but both face significant unknowns. Mal Coupe has never raced beyond 1000m in a proper race - the step to 1200m on a heavy deck at BM88 is a massive ask despite his talent. Bev’s Nine has never raced at 1200m at all. Both are WATCH - talented but too short for the risks.
KEY RISKS
- Both selections are resuming off long breaks (113 and 140 days) - fitness is the primary concern
- Charcoals draws barrier 12 in a 14-horse field on soft - will need luck from wide
cloudland: kelly 0.46% | ev: +$0.28/u EW | edge: +36.5% charcoals: kelly 0.37% | ev: +$0.13/u EW | edge: +19.0%