Randwick R6 | 1400m BM88
Sat 28 Feb | 3:25pm | 11r | Soft 7 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #1 MANAAL @ $3.60 - 1.5u EW VALUE: #11 IT’S A KNOCKOUT @ $27.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manaal | $3.60 | 58.5 | 28% | +0.8% | VALUE | 1.5u EW |
| 4 | Verona Rose | $5.00 | 52.0 | 19% | -5.0% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Gerringong | $6.00 | 46.0 | 14% | -16.0% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | It’s A Knockout | $27.00 | 48.0 | 5% | +35.0% | VALUE | 0.5u EW |
| 7 | Jenni The Fox | $7.00 | 42.0 | 10% | -30.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Firestorm | $6.50 | 38.0 | 6% | -61.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Wet | Class | Pace | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manaal | 9 | $3.60 | 81142 | 5/5: 3w 3p | 90 | GOOD | Hot | 58.5 | VALUE |
| 4 | Verona Rose | 6 | $5.00 | 28413 | 3/3: 2w 2p | 88 | GOOD | Neutral | 52.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Gerringong | 2 | $6.00 | 42927 | 5/5: 1w 3p | 87 | OK | Neutral | 46.0 | WATCH |
| 11 | It’s A Knockout | 12 | $27.00 | 32471 | 6/6: 2w 5p | 85 | OK | Neutral | 48.0 | VALUE |
| 7 | Jenni The Fox | 7 | $7.00 | 43412 | 7/7: 0w 2p | 84 | OK | Neutral | 42.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Firestorm | 1 | $6.50 | 39667 | 11/11: 2w 4p | 85 | POOR | Hot | 38.0 | PASS |
| 6 | Dark Glitter | 3 | $18.00 | 76x43 | 21/21: 2w 7p | 82 | OK | Cold | 35.0 | PASS |
| 10 | Shohisha | 5 | $26.00 | x4177 | 5/5: 3w 3p | 86 | OK | Cold | 40.0 | WATCH |
| 2 | Arctic Glamour | 4 | $11.00 | x12x6 | 8/8: 0w 3p | 82 | POOR | Neutral | 30.0 | PASS |
| 9 | Our Gold Hope | 11 | $71.00 | 39655 | 9/9: 0w 5p | 78 | POOR | Neutral | 25.0 | PASS |
| 12 | Unique Ambition | 8 | $151.00 | xx453 | 8/8: 3w 5p | 75 | OK | Cold | 28.0 | PASS |
| 8 | Tuileries | - | SCR | - | - | - | - | - | - | SCR |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Manaal holds the best speed figures from Invitation (4th, 0.33L) and Gold Pendant win (1st). Verona Rose’s Inglis Bracelet win at Flemington rates next best. It’s A Knockout won BM78 at Randwick 1400m soft by 4.14L - huge effort that rates strongly for this grade.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No confirmed leaders in the field. Manaal (barrier 9) and Gerringong (barrier 2) likely settle midfield-to-on-pace. It’s A Knockout is a genuine backmarker who needs a solid tempo to close. The Soft 7 should ensure honest speed throughout.
Class: Manaal has contested Invitation and Gold Pendant level - significant class drop to BM88. Verona Rose ran in the Epsom and Inglis Bracelet. Both are class standouts. It’s A Knockout won BM78 last prep and ran 3rd in BM88 at Randwick - class appropriate. Firestorm and Gerringong also have stakes-level experience.
Bias: Neutral bias confidence (LOW data). Soft 7 track will favour wet-trackers. Inside barriers advantaged slightly on rain-affected Randwick.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#1 Manaal is the class horse of the race dropping sharply from Invitation level to BM88. Outstanding wet-track record (3 wins, 3 places from 5 soft/heavy starts). Third-up off a solid 2nd in the Triscay Stakes (1200m), stepping to his preferred 1400m. Jason Collett/Freedman combination in strong form. The win edge is marginal (+0.8%) but the EW value is compelling at +10.6% with a 73% modelled place probability. Barrier 9 is the main concern but manageable in an 11-horse field.
#11 It’s A Knockout is the speculative EW play. Superb wet-track credentials (2 wins, 5 places from 6 soft starts), including a dominant 4.14L BM78 win at Randwick 1400m on soft. Place specialist score of 2.33 (strong). The $27 price vastly underrates this horse’s wet-track ability. Barrier 12 is a negative, but Tim Clark can ride a patient race from the back. At the price, the EW value is significant.
KEY RISKS
- Manaal (barrier 9): Could be caught wide without cover if pace is slow; only 2 prior 1400m starts this prep (both shorter sprints in trials)
- It’s A Knockout (barrier 12): Widest gate in the field, backmarker style means vulnerable if pace collapses; form this prep slightly below best (7th BM88 Randwick 1600m last start)
- Soft 7 wildcard: Track could deteriorate further if rain persists - benefits wet-trackers more but creates unpredictability
#1 Manaal: ew_ev: +10.6% | place_prob: 73.1% | score: 58.5/100 #11 It’s A Knockout: place_specialist: 2.33 | soft: 2w/5p from 6 | score: 48.0/100