Randwick R7 | 1400m Surround Stakes (G1)

Sat 28 Feb | 4:00pm | 8r | Soft 7

ACTION

VALUE: #4 SAVVY HALLIE @ $11.00 - 0.5u EW VALUE: #7 PANOVA @ $17.00 - 0.6u EW

Tempted ($1.65) is the class horse but is an UNDERLAY at current odds. The value sits with Savvy Hallie (wet track form, Lightfinger winner) and Panova (class + J.McDonald, big price).

EDGE TABLE

#	Horse	Odds	Win%	Place%	Edge	EW EV	Tier	Kelly
1	Tempted	1.65	40%	85%	-30.7%	-	WATCH	-
2	Apocalyptic	3.90	22%	63%	-14.2%	-	WATCH	-
4	Savvy Hallie	11.00	11%	34%	+10.0%	+20.4%	VALUE	0.53%
7	Panova	17.00	8%	27%	+36.0%	+36.0%	VALUE	0.56%
3	Ole Dancer	12.00	9%	30%	+8.0%	+10.1%	WATCH	-
6	Sunrays	46.00	4%	17%	+84.0%	-	PASS	-
5	Karinska	35.00	3%	9%	+5.0%	-	PASS	-
8	Queen Of Clubs	201.00	2%	7%	-	-	PASS	-

FIELD ANALYSIS

#	Horse	Bar	Odds	Form	Class	Wet	Conn	Tier
1	Tempted	2	1.65	x1-3-2	G1 (Everest 2nd)	2/2	Maher/Schofield	WATCH
2	Apocalyptic	4	3.90	1-1-1-2	G1 (Flight w)	0/1 soft	Freedman/Berry	WATCH
3	Ole Dancer	5	12.00	1-5-2-1	G1 (1000G w)	1/2 soft	Moody/Lloyd	WATCH
4	Savvy Hallie	6	11.00	1-1-3-4	G2 (Lightfinger w)	2/3 hvy, 0/1 soft	Widdup/Rawiller	VALUE
5	Karinska	1	35.00	6-5-3-5	G2 (Flight 3rd)	1/1 soft	Waller/Clipperton	PASS
6	Sunrays	3	46.00	1-6-2-4	LR (Eagle Farm)	3/3 soft	Schweida/Collett	PASS
7	Panova	8	17.00	2-4-2-1-1	G3 (Carbine Club w)	0/1 soft	Waller/McDonald	VALUE
8	Queen Of Clubs	7	201.00	3-4-8-6	G2 (Silver Sh 3rd)	1/2 soft	Portelli/Williams	PASS

ANALYSIS

Speed: Tempted posted the best raw times (68.13 for 1200m in the Everest) but hasn’t run 1400m on soft. Apocalyptic clocked 83.26 winning the Tea Rose over 1400m. Panova’s 82.61 Reg Allen win is the fastest 1400m figure in the field.

Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. Tempted and Savvy Hallie will be on-pace. Apocalyptic sits midfield. Panova typically settles back. With only 8 runners, the tempo should be genuine but not overly fast, slightly favouring on-pace runners.

Class: Elite field - six G1 performers. Tempted (Everest 2nd), Apocalyptic (Flight/Tea Rose winner), Ole Dancer (1000 Guineas winner), Panova (Carbine Club winner). Savvy Hallie stepping up from G2 Lightfinger win.

Bias: Soft 7 is the key differentiator. Savvy Hallie has the standout wet record (2 wins from 3 heavy, excels on rain-affected). Sunrays (3/3 soft) has the wet form but outclassed here. Tempted is 2/2 soft but untested at Soft 7+ level.

SELECTION RATIONALE

Savvy Hallie ($11 EW): Won the G2 Lightfinger beating Apocalyptic two weeks ago. Outstanding wet track record - 2 wins from 3 on heavy, including Silver Shadow Stakes (G2). The Soft 7 surface is a significant advantage over the favourite. Nash Rawiller is an astute booking for wet conditions. At $11 she represents genuine each-way value with 34% place probability (EW EV +20.4%).

Panova ($17 EW): Won the Reg Allen Stakes (1400m Randwick) and Carbine Club (1600m Flemington). Has the fastest 1400m time in the field (82.61). Returns from a long break (118 days) but has trialled twice. James McDonald sticking with this one over stablemate Karinska is telling. At $17, the edge is +36% with EW EV of +36% - the best value play in the race. The risk is fitness first-up from a spell.

KEY RISKS

Tempted is a superstar - at $1.65 she’s short but could be that good; she’s 2/2 on soft ground and Maher has her building towards an Autumn campaign
Panova fitness query - 118 days between runs, barrier 8 of 8, and soft track unknown
Apocalyptic distance query - only 1 start at 1400m (Tea Rose win) and limited wet form (0/1 soft)