Eagle Farm R2 | 2412m BM82
Sat 7 Mar | 1:48pm | 7r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #7 WHATJEUDOIN’ @ $10.00 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Whatjeudoin’ | 10.00 | 84.8 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 1.0% |
| 5 | Mr O’Reilly | 2.90 | 41.3 | 25% | -27.5% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Liberty Park | 4.60 | - | 17% | -21.8% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Kureder | 3.70 | - | 18% | -33.4% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Raf Attack | 5.50 | - | 10% | -45.0% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Aldeenaary | 11.00 | - | 8% | -12.0% | PASS | - |
| 1 | Hadouken | 26.00 | - | 5% | +30.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Wet | Class | Pace | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hadouken | 3 | $26 | 1x975 | 0/18 | BM82 | MID | PASS |
| 2 | Raf Attack | 2 | $5.50 | 8855 | 0/11 | BM82= | MID | PASS |
| 3 | Kureder | 5 | $3.70 | 869544 | 3/14 | BM82= | MID | WATCH |
| 4 | Liberty Park | 4 | $4.60 | 736861 | 2/8 | BM68+ | MID | WATCH |
| 5 | Mr O’Reilly | 1 | $2.90 | 232443 | 1/7 | BM70+ | BACK | WATCH |
| 6 | Aldeenaary | 7 | $11 | x57385 | 0/12 | BM82= | MID | PASS |
| 7 | Whatjeudoin’ | 6 | $10 | 21261 | 4/22 | BM58+ | BACK | VALUE |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No reliable speed figures available. Mr O’Reilly and Whatjeudoin’ competitive at staying distances recently. Pace: MODERATE - small field with no confirmed leaders. Suits mid-race movers and backmarkers. Class: Whatjeudoin’ rising sharply from BM58 but winning form on soft compelling. Liberty Park also rising from BM68. Kureder the only proven BM82 performer. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Soft 5 with rain - track may deteriorate further.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Whatjeudoin’ qualifies as EW VALUE via both Path A (Value Overlay: $10 odds, +24.9% EW EV, 40% place prob) and Path B (Place Specialist: score 1.88, career 63% place rate). Outstanding recent form of 2-1-2-6-1 includes a dominant 2.5L win at Ipswich 2180m on Soft, proving both distance and wet track aptitude. The 4/22 soft track strike rate (18%) significantly exceeds his overall 16% win rate, confirming wet track ability. At $10 he offers genuine each-way value in a small field where place probability is enhanced by the 2.8x field multiplier.
KEY RISKS
- Class rise from BM58 to BM82 is significant (24 points) - biggest rise in field
- 10th of 13 at Eagle Farm 2200m BM70 last start (Soft) - poor course form
WHY NOT THE FAVOURITE
Mr O’Reilly ($2.90) has excellent consistency (2-3-2-4-4-3) and the ideal barrier 1, but at $2.90 he’s a -27.5% underlay. His class rise from BM70 to BM82 is untested, and the price offers no margin for error. Place EV is mildly positive (+11.1%) but insufficient for EW at short odds.
ew_ev: +24.9% | place_specialist: 1.88 | score: 84.8/100 | paths: A+B