Eagle Farm R9 | 1200m BM85
Sat 07 Mar | 6:11pm | 11r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #7 CHAMIERRO @ $13.00 - 1.2u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chamierro | $13.00 | 58.2 | 12% | +56.0% | VALUE | 1.17% |
| 3 | Ser Joh | $9.50 | 44.5 | 11% | +4.5% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Kingdom Undersiege | $11.00 | 42.8 | 10% | +10.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Facundo | $4.20 | 62.0 | 20% | -16.0% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | About To Explode | $4.80 | 52.5 | 16% | -23.2% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Millane | $19.00 | 35.0 | 6% | +14.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Soft | Class | Pace | C/D | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millane | 10 | $19 | 4-5-8-x-7-9 | 3/9 33% | BM85 level | MID | 3/16 | PASS |
| 2 | Mister Bianco | 11 | $15 | x-5-1-6-5-6 | 4/10 40% | CL6 rise | MID | 0/5 | PASS |
| 3 | Ser Joh | 8 | $9.50 | 1-2-8-2-3 | 1/10 10% | CL6 rise | ON-PACE | 2/10 | WATCH |
| 4 | Zondee | 3 | $10 | 9-5-9-7-x-5 | 1/7 14% | BM85 debut | MID | 0/0 | PASS |
| 5 | About To Explode | 1 | $4.80 | 1-1-7-4-x-6 | 2/7 29% | BM78 rise | ON-PACE | 3/5 | WATCH |
| 6 | Facundo | 5 | $4.20 | 1-3-1-1-x-6 | 3/5 60% | BM85 2nd up | STALKER | 1/2 | WATCH |
| 7 | Chamierro | 6 | $13 | 5-1-1-1-5-x | 1/3 33% | BM70 rise | STALKER | 2/4 | VALUE |
| 8 | Kingdom Undersiege | 4 | $11 | 8-x-1-1-1-7 | 1/3 33% | Highway rise | MID | 0/0 | WATCH |
| 10 | Astapor | 7 | $10 | x-2-9-8-4-7 | 1/4 25% | CL3 rise | ON-PACE | 1/5 | PASS |
| 11 | Bundella | 2 | $6 | 1-6-6-5-4-1 | 1/6 17% | BM65 rise | ON-PACE | 1/3 | PASS |
| 12 | Irama | 9 | $27 | 3-1-2-2-8-x | 1/5 20% | BM65 rise | MID | 0/2 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Facundo posted best times at distance (69.75 at GC Soft, 70.39 Doomben Good); Chamierro won three straight at 1350-1600m with dominant margins before stepping up in class. Pace: CONTESTED - About To Explode (bar 1), Bundella (bar 2), and Ser Joh will push forward, creating genuine speed. Stalkers/midfield runners advantaged - suits Chamierro and Facundo. Class: Big class jump for several runners. Chamierro rises from BM70 but won three straight impressively (CL1->CL2->BM70). Facundo has BM85 experience (6th last start) and won to CL6/BM70 level. Kingdom Undersiege won a Highway at Randwick but massive class jump to BM85 metro. Bias: Neutral bias confidence LOW. Soft 5 with rain - track will deteriorate further. Favours proven wet-trackers.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Chamierro at $13 presents the best value in the race. While resuming from a 133-day spell with only two trials, he showed ability at his trial (2nd then 4th at Doomben). His pre-spell form was outstanding - three consecutive wins (Ipswich CL1, Eagle Farm CL2, Eagle Farm BM70) with authoritative margins. He has strong course form (2 wins from 4 starts at Eagle Farm) and draws ideally in barrier 6 to stalk the contested pace. Daniel Moor is a quality booking at 54.5kg. The EW value is exceptional at +46.4% EV with the 1/4 odds place return of $4.00. Place specialist score of 1.89 (career 55% place rate) supports the each-way approach. At $13 he’s significantly overbid relative to his ability - the market is heavily discounting the long layoff.
Facundo is the logical favourite with the best wet form (3/5 soft, 60%) and class for the race, but $4.20 offers no value (-16% edge). He’s the horse to beat but the price is too short.
KEY RISKS
- Chamierro resuming off 133 days - only two barrier trials, fitness a genuine query for a 1200m BM85
- Untested at 1200m - Chamierro’s wins have been at 1300m+ (0 wins from 2 starts at 1200m), distance may be sharp enough first-up
- Deteriorating track - Soft 5 with rain may become Heavy; Chamierro has no Heavy track experience
MARKET NOTES
- Market overrate: Facundo ($4.20, -16%), About To Explode ($4.80, -23.2%), Bundella ($6, -40%)
- Market underrate: Chamierro ($13, +56%), Kingdom Undersiege ($11, +10%)
- Market percentage: 124.3% (competitive market)
kelly: 1.17% | ev: +$0.46/u (EW) | score: 58.2/100