Flemington R3 | 1000m Gr.3 Ottawa Stakes (2YO Fillies)
Sat 7 Mar | 1:20pm | 8r (2 scr) | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #1 REBEL TUESDAY @ $6.50 - 0.77u EW VALUE: #4 SCINTILLATION @ $12.00 - 0.45u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebel Tuesday | 6.50 | 68.5 | 18% | +17.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 0.77% |
| 2 | Medicinal | 2.20 | 62.0 | 30% | -34.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Scintillation | 12.00 | 52.0 | 10% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.45% |
| 5 | Better Off Alone | 10.00 | 48.0 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.56% |
| 8 | Jadzia | 8.00 | 45.0 | 13% | +4.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Simply Steffi | 8.50 | 44.0 | 12% | +2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Sanctuary | 7.00 | 38.0 | 12% | -16.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Chapados | 34.00 | 20.0 | 3% | - | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebel Tuesday | 9 | 6.50 | 72 | OK | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 68.5 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 2 | Medicinal | 10 | 2.20 | 68 | GOOD | 60 | 0% | Hot | 62.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Simply Steffi | 1 | 8.50 | 65 | OK | 60 | +2% | Neutral | 44.0 | WATCH |
| 4 | Scintillation | 3 | 12.00 | 66 | OK | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 52.0 | VALUE |
| 5 | Better Off Alone | 4 | 10.00 | 74 | POOR | 65 | 0% | Neutral | 48.0 | VALUE |
| 6 | Chapados | 7 | 34.00 | 55 | OK | 55 | 0% | Cold | 20.0 | PASS |
| 8 | Jadzia | 6 | 8.00 | 60 | OK | 60 | 0% | Neutral | 45.0 | WATCH |
| 10 | Sanctuary | 2 | 7.00 | 58 | OK | 60 | +2% | Neutral | 38.0 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Better Off Alone posted the best raw figure (74) from the Gimcrack at Randwick but ran 7th in strong company; Rebel Tuesday’s back-to-back Morphettville wins produced consistent 72-level figures at the distance. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected - no dominant leader, Medicinal and Rebel Tuesday likely sit handy in a straight 1000m where tactical speed matters less than raw ability. Class: Ottawa Stakes (Gr.3) is a significant rise for most - Rebel Tuesday has the most race experience (4 starts, 2 wins) and only runner proven winning at 1000m+; Better Off Alone ran in the Gimcrack (Gr.3) so has the stakes exposure. Bias: Good 4 with rain, neutral bias at low confidence - straight 1000m negates barrier bias concerns.
EW VALUES
| # | Horse | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebel Tuesday | +17.0% | +26.4% | +21.7% | STRONG EW |
| 4 | Scintillation | +20.0% | +27.5% | +23.8% | STRONG EW |
| 5 | Better Off Alone | +20.0% | -6.4% | +6.8% | EW VALUE |
SELECTION RATIONALE
Rebel Tuesday is the value play at $6.50 in a race dominated by Medicinal in the market ($2.20). She brings the best combination of proven 1000m form (2 wins from 3 starts at the trip), race experience (4 starts vs mostly lightly-raced rivals), and 100% place strike rate (4/4). The straight 1000m at Flemington eliminates her wide barrier concern. At $6.50 vs fair odds of $5.56, the +17% edge with strong EW value (+21.7%) makes this a clear each-way proposition. Medicinal is the most likely winner but is -34% underlay at $2.20 - a classic case of quality without value.
Scintillation at $12.00 is the secondary play - won impressively at Gosford first-up for the O’Shea/Charlton stable and the +23.8% EW EV is the highest in the race despite limited data.
KEY RISKS
- Medicinal’s dominant Ballarat win (3.25L margin) suggests she may simply be too good for these - if she’s a $1.80 chance in reality, the rest are fighting for minors
- Rebel Tuesday untested at Flemington and stepping from SA provincial to metro Group level for first time
- Rain may shift track condition during the day - monitor for any downgrade
rebel tuesday: kelly 0.77% | ev: +21.7%/u EW | score: 68.5/100 scintillation: kelly 0.45% | ev: +23.8%/u EW | score: 52.0/100