Flemington R7 | 1600m BM84
Sat 07 Mar | 3:40pm | 9r | Good 4
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #4 EVAPORATE @ $10.00 - 1.1u EW VALUE: #6 WATCH ME ROCK @ $15.00 - 1.2u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Evaporate | $10.00 | 62.0 | 14% | +40.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.11% |
| 6 | Watch Me Rock | $15.00 | 55.0 | 11% | +65.0% | VALUE | 1.16% |
| 8 | Pride Of Jenni | $2.80 | 42.0 | 25% | -30.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Tom Kitten | $3.90 | 38.0 | 16% | -37.6% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Stefi Magnetica | $7.50 | 36.0 | 12% | -10.0% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Leica Lucy | $11.00 | 34.0 | 9% | -1.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Sabaj | $18.00 | 30.0 | 7% | +26.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Antino | $13.00 | 22.0 | 4% | -48.0% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Steparty | $23.00 | 18.0 | 2% | -54.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | C/D | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Evaporate | 8 | $10 | 1233 | 92 | 3/5 1600m | 0% | Neutral | 62.0 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 6 | Watch Me Rock | 5 | $15 | 3112 | 90 | 3/3 1600m | 0% | Hot | 55.0 | VALUE |
| 8 | Pride Of Jenni | 2 | $2.80 | 1718 | 100 | 7/17 1600m | 0% | Neutral | 42.0 | WATCH |
| 1 | Tom Kitten | 7 | $3.90 | 5453 | 88 | 2/11 1600m | 0% | Neutral | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 9 | Stefi Magnetica | 4 | $7.50 | 4135 | 95 | 1/4 1600m | 0% | Neutral | 36.0 | WATCH |
| 11 | Leica Lucy | 10 | $11 | 4325 | 90 | 2/4 1600m | 0% | Neutral | 34.0 | WATCH |
| 7 | Sabaj | 3 | $18 | 6112 | 82 | 2/4 1600m | 0% | Neutral | 30.0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Antino | 1 | $13 | 5428 | 95 | 0/5 Flem | 0% | Cold | 22.0 | PASS |
| 5 | Steparty | 11 | $23 | 9721 | 78 | 1/8 1600m | 0% | Cold | 18.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Evaporate ran 0.15L off Toorak Hcp winner (95.64s/1600m Caulfield G4), Golden Eagle 3rd - top speed on adjusted figures. Pride Of Jenni’s Empire Rose win (94.42s) is the fastest raw time but off a 119-day break. Pace: MODERATE shape expected with no dominant leaders; Evaporate and Watch Me Rock both versatile enough to settle midfield and finish strongly. Class: Pride Of Jenni (G1 Empire Rose, G2 Feehan winner) and Stefi Magnetica (Listed Invitation winner) rate highest on class, but both are dropping back and showing question marks. Evaporate has Toorak 2nd, Golden Eagle 3rd, Sandown Stakes win - genuine G1 performer at $10 is over the odds. Bias: Neutral track bias with low confidence. No significant style or barrier advantage detected.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Evaporate is the standout value play. This 4yo has placed in the G1 Toorak Hcp (2nd, beaten 0.15L), G2 Golden Eagle (3rd), and G2 CF Orr (3rd), plus won the Listed Sandown Stakes. His Futurity 4th (0.75L) behind the scratched Buckaroo was strong. At $10 in a BM84 against horses he’s been competitive with at G1 level, the edge is +40%. Career 70% place rate makes EW compelling (place prob 40.6%, EW EV +36%).
Watch Me Rock is the secondary play at enormous value ($15). Railway Stakes winner (G1 1600m Ascot), 3/3 at 1600m, 86% career place rate. First time at Flemington is the query, but Pike booking holds. Edge +65%, EW EV +61.2%.
KEY RISKS
- Evaporate: Mid-barrier (8/9) in small field less ideal; only 1 Flemington start (unplaced)
- Watch Me Rock: First time Flemington, WA form lines hard to compare; Futurity 6th was plain
- Pride Of Jenni: 119 days between runs at age 8; market favourite but no edge at $2.80
EACH-WAY VALUE
| # | Horse | Win Odds | Place Odds | Win% | Place% | EW EV | Path | Specialist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Evaporate | $10.00 | $2.50 | 14% | 40.6% | +36.0% | A | 2.08 |
| 6 | Watch Me Rock | $15.00 | $3.40 | 11% | 35.0% | +61.2% | A | 3.25 |
| 7 | Sabaj | $18.00 | $3.60 | 7% | 24.8% | +28.1% | A | 4.76 |
#4 Evaporate: kelly 1.1% | ew_ev: +36.0% | score: 62.0/100 #6 Watch Me Rock: kelly 1.2% | ew_ev: +61.2% | score: 55.0/100