Flemington R8 | 1600m BM100
| Sat 7 Mar | 4:15pm | 11r (7 scr) | Good 4 | Rain | 8C |
ACTION
VALUE: #6 TOO DARN DISCREET @ $9.50 - 0.41u EW VALUE: #3 PHILIA @ $16.00 - 0.47u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sea What I See | 3.80 | 62.0 | 20% | -16.4% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Ahha Ahha | 5.50 | 48.0 | 13% | -23.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Benagil | 7.50 | 46.0 | 12% | -2.5% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Too Darn Discreet | 9.50 | 52.0 | 12% | +14.0% | VALUE | 0.41 |
| 12 | Butternut Princess | 9.50 | 42.0 | 10% | +4.5% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Philia | 16.00 | 48.0 | 8% | +28.0% | VALUE | 0.47 |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | Bias | Conn | C/D | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benagil | 1 | 7.50 | x37x5 | BM100 | OK | 0 | Zahra | 0/3,1/3 | WATCH |
| 2 | Machine Gun Gracie | 7 | 14.00 | 11x44 | BM100 | OK | 0 | Currie | 0/0,1/2 | PASS |
| 3 | Philia | 4 | 16.00 | 1118x | BM100 | GOOD | 0 | Mott | 0/1,2/2 | VALUE |
| 4 | Jennilala | 9 | 41.00 | 4464 | BM100 | POOR | 0 | Stockdale | 2/4,1/7 | PASS |
| 5 | Damask Rose | 12 | 4.80 | 76x23 | BM100 | OK | 0 | Williams | 0/1,1/3 | WATCH |
| 6 | Too Darn Discreet | 3 | 9.50 | 71217 | BM100 | GOOD | 0 | Bates | 2/5,2/3 | VALUE |
| 8 | Sea What I See | 2 | 3.80 | 15240 | BM100 | GOOD | 0 | J Melham | 1/3,2/3 | WATCH |
| 9 | Until Valhalla | 10 | 21.00 | 1x791 | BM100 | OK | 0 | L Bates | 0/1,1/4 | PASS |
| 10 | Miss Tarzy | 11 | 34.00 | 79895 | BM100 | POOR | 0 | Stackhouse | 1/5,1/7 | PASS |
| 11 | Ahha Ahha | 5 | 5.50 | 81522 | BM100 | OK | 0 | B Melham | 0/2,0/2 | WATCH |
| 12 | Butternut Princess | 6 | 9.50 | 2x471 | BM100 | OK | 0 | Cartwright | 0/0,0/4 | WATCH |
#7 Miss Aria - SCRATCHED
ANALYSIS
Speed: Sea What I See has the best recent figure (82.18s/1400m Flemington 2nd fresh), but Too Darn Discreet posted 96.87s/1620m Flemington win and 99.33s/1600m Caulfield 2nd - both at this trip. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected - no confirmed leaders. Sea What I See, Too Darn Discreet, and Benagil likely to be on-pace or stalking. Suits runners with tactical speed from good draws. Class: Open BM100 with several runners dropping from stakes level. Philia won the Princess Stakes (Gr3) and Queensland Oaks placing. Too Darn Discreet won BM84 and Heatherlie Hcp. Damask Rose has Toorak Hcp form. Sea What I See has Tesio/Matriarch form. Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. Good 4 with rain - track may deteriorate during the day favouring wet-trackers.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Too Darn Discreet is the value play at $9.50. Outstanding Flemington record (5 starts, 2 wins) and perfect at 1600m (3 starts, 2 wins). The Heatherlie Hcp winner excels on rain-affected going (4 wins from 9 on soft) and if the track deteriorates as forecast, she becomes the horse to beat. Barrier 3 ensures a trouble-free run. Fresh form is the query after a 7th in the Tressady (1400m, possibly too short) but the step to 1600m is the key. EW EV of +10.1% with a place specialist score of 1.88.
Philia at $16 offers significant each-way value. Unbeaten at 1600m (2/2 including the Princess Stakes), she has genuine class for this. The EW EV of +28.1% is the best in the race. The risk is she’s had minimal racing since spring and her Good track form (3/4) is better than her Soft form (0/3), so deteriorating conditions are a concern.
KEY RISKS
- Track may deteriorate to Soft given rain forecast - benefits #6, hurts #3
- Sea What I See ($3.80) is the class runner and could simply be too good despite being an underlay
- Damask Rose ($4.80) is overbet but has genuine class and Craig Williams aboard
PLACE SPECIALIST FLAGS
| # | Horse | Place% | Specialist | EW EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ahha Ahha | 59% | 1.89 STRONG | -5.6% (too short) |
| 12 | Butternut Princess | 59% | 2.46 STRONG | -5.6% (too short) |
| 6 | Too Darn Discreet | 54% | 1.88 STRONG | +10.1% |
#6 kelly: 0.41% | ew_ev: +10.1% | score: 52.0/100 #3 kelly: 0.47% | ew_ev: +28.1% | score: 48.0/100