Flemington R9 | 1200m BM100
Sat 07 Mar | 4:55pm | 14r | Good 4 | Rain | $109,502
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #3 WAR MACHINE @ $14 - 1.5u EW STRONG_VALUE: #4 ANGEL CAPITAL @ $13 - 1.5u EW VALUE: #15 PALLATON @ $34 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tentyris | $2.00 | 82.0 | 45% | -10.0% | WATCH | - |
| 13 | My Gladiola | $4.60 | 70.5 | 15% | -31.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Angel Capital | $13 | 65.2 | 10% | +30.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.5% |
| 3 | War Machine | $14 | 68.5 | 9% | +26.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.5% |
| 6 | Caballus | $16 | 58.0 | 7% | +12.0% | VALUE | - |
| 15 | Pallaton | $34 | 52.0 | 6% | +104.0% | VALUE | 1.0% |
| 5 | Sepals | $21 | 50.0 | 5% | +5.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Benedetta | $14 | 42.0 | 7% | -2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 14 | Wodeton | $14 | 40.0 | 7% | -2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Geegees Mistruth | $61 | 38.0 | 4% | +144.0% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Gallant Son | $61 | 36.0 | 4% | +144.0% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Disneck | $61 | 32.0 | 2% | - | PASS | - |
| 8 | De Bergerac | $101 | 25.0 | 2% | - | PASS | - |
| 12 | Sghirripa | $101 | 22.0 | 2% | - | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Class | Pace | Bias | Conn | Form | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tentyris | 12 | $2.00 | G1 | GOOD | 0% | Hot | x3111 | 82.0 | WATCH |
| 13 | My Gladiola | 7 | $4.60 | G1 | GOOD | 0% | Neut | 12232 | 70.5 | WATCH |
| 3 | War Machine | 11 | $14 | G1 | OK | 0% | Neut | x1x31 | 68.5 | STRONG |
| 4 | Angel Capital | 2 | $13 | G2 | GOOD | 0% | Neut | 14623 | 65.2 | STRONG |
| 6 | Caballus | 1 | $16 | G2 | GOOD | 0% | Neut | x5181 | 58.0 | VALUE |
| 15 | Pallaton | 6 | $34 | Listed | OK | 0% | Neut | 56214 | 52.0 | VALUE |
| 5 | Sepals | 4 | $21 | G1 | POOR | 0% | Neut | x1121 | 50.0 | WATCH |
| 7 | Benedetta | 13 | $14 | G1 | OK | 0% | Neut | 7x758 | 42.0 | WATCH |
| 14 | Wodeton | 15 | $14 | G2 | OK | 0% | Neut | 24243 | 40.0 | WATCH |
| 11 | Geegees Mistruth | 5 | $61 | Listed | OK | 0% | Neut | 22x32 | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 10 | Gallant Son | 10 | $61 | Listed | OK | 0% | Neut | 24x11 | 36.0 | WATCH |
| 9 | Disneck | 8 | $61 | Listed | OK | 0% | Neut | 19581 | 32.0 | PASS |
| 8 | De Bergerac | 14 | $101 | BM78 | OK | 0% | Cold | 45121 | 25.0 | PASS |
| 12 | Sghirripa | 9 | $101 | Listed | OK | 0% | Cold | x7518 | 22.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Tentyris posted 56.91s for Lightning 1000m (G1) - clear best figure. Angel Capital and War Machine next best from G1/G2 form. Caballus’ George Moore 67.84s (1200m Doomben) strong. Pallaton’s Zeditave 69.45s (1200m Caulfield) solid for the class.
Pace: CONTESTED - multiple speed types (Caballus, Disneck, Pallaton can lead). Tentyris and Angel Capital stalk. War Machine and My Gladiola midfield/back. Contested pace should suit off-speed runners if they over-race up front.
Class: Tentyris dropping from G1 Lightning to BM100 - enormous class drop. My Gladiola (G1 Lightning 2nd), War Machine (G2 Gilgai winner, Everest runner), Angel Capital (G2 Expressway, Everest runner) all massive class edge over a BM100 field. Pallaton won Listed Zeditave last start.
Bias: Neutral track bias at Flemington Good 4. Rain forecast but track holding. No style or barrier bias detected (LOW confidence).
SELECTION RATIONALE
War Machine (#3 @ $14 EW): G2 Gilgai winner who ran creditably in The Everest. Resuming after 43 days with two solid jump outs, including finishing 3rd behind Baraqiel in the latest. The 5yo has a 41% career win rate and the Gilgai form at this track/distance is the strongest 1200m form credential outside Tentyris. Won the jump out on 13/02 and solid in latest. EW EV +18.2% with strong place consistency (71% career place rate). Wide barrier (11) a concern but class compensates.
Angel Capital (#4 @ $13 EW): Chris Waller 4yo who ran 4th in the G2 Expressway (1.19L off Caballus) resuming. Barrier 2 is ideal in a 14-runner field. Won the G2 Chautauqua at Moonee Valley by 3.75L on soft. Has Everest experience. Career 42% win, 50% place rate. EW EV +17.0% with +30% win edge. First time at Flemington is the query.
Pallaton (#15 @ $34 EW): Won the Listed Zeditave (1200m Caulfield) by 1.5L two weeks ago in 69.45s. 3yo with upside, 3 wins from 10 starts. Has won at Flemington (1000m). Price is too generous given recent Listed form - EW EV +85.2%. Michael Freedman-trained, Teo Nugent rides. Barrier 6 ideal.
KEY RISKS
- Tentyris is the clear class horse and $2.00 favourite for good reason - Coolmore Stud and Lightning Stakes winner with 3 wins from 4 at Flemington 1200m. Hard to oppose outright.
- Rain could change the track condition. Angel Capital handles soft, Tentyris is untested on soft (all 8 starts on good), War Machine less effective on soft (1/4).
- Wide barriers for War Machine (11) and Tentyris (12) in a big field with contested pace could cause traffic issues.
War Machine: kelly 1.5% | ew_ev: +18.2% | score: 68.5/100 Angel Capital: kelly 1.5% | ew_ev: +17.0% | score: 65.2/100 Pallaton: kelly 1.0% | ew_ev: +85.2% | score: 52.0/100 Source: sportsbetform.com.au