Randwick R6 | 1600m BM88
Sat 07 Mar | 3:25pm | 12r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #1 QUIETNESS @ $10.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | PlcSpec | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quietness | $10 | 12% | +20.0% | 34.2% | 3.57x | VALUE |
| 5 | Unleeshing | $3.60 | 22% | -20.8% | 54.9% | - | WATCH |
| 2 | Pinito | $3.20 | 20% | -36.0% | 51.2% | 2.19x | PASS |
| 7 | Polymnia | $8.50 | 12% | +2.0% | 31.2% | 2.38x | WATCH |
| 6 | Pippie Beach | $10 | 10% | +0.0% | 27.5% | - | WATCH |
| 11 | Heat Missile | $10 | 10% | +0.0% | 26.0% | - | WATCH |
| 3 | Movin Out | $11 | 8% | -12.0% | 20.8% | - | PASS |
| 4 | Kind Words | $21 | 5% | -5.0% | 15.5% | - | PASS |
| 9 | Sweltering | $23 | 5% | -15.0% | 16.2% | - | PASS |
| 10 | Starphistocated | $35 | 4% | -40.0% | 12.0% | - | PASS |
| 8 | Good Banter | $126 | 2% | -152.0% | 5.0% | - | PASS |
| 12 | Placid Pearl | $126 | 2% | -152.0% | 5.0% | - | PASS |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Jockey | Trainer | Form | C:D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quietness | 2 | 58.5 | T Berry | O’Shea/Charlton | 2-2-3-4-2 | 0:2/0:2 |
| 2 | Pinito | 5 | 56.5 | J McDonald | C Waller | 3-2-1-2-x | 0:0/0:1 |
| 3 | Movin Out | 4 | 55.0 | C Schofield | C Waller | 9-7-6-x-1 | 1:1/2:4 |
| 4 | Kind Words | 9 | 54.0 | T Sherry | K Lees | 3-2-4-1-1 | 0:5/1:5 |
| 5 | Unleeshing | 10 | 53.5 | J Collett | B Baker | 6-x-3-3-1 | 1:2/2:2 |
| 6 | Pippie Beach | 12 | 53.0 | T Schiller | C Waller | 1-x-5-4-3 | 0:4/0:2 |
| 7 | Polymnia | 13 | 53.0 | Z Lloyd | O’Shea/Charlton | x-3-5-3-x | 0:5/0:4 |
| 8 | Good Banter | 7 | 53.0 | D Gibbons | O’Shea/Charlton | 2-3-9-7-8 | 1:6/0:5 |
| 9 | Sweltering | 1 | 53.0 | A Adkins | C Waller | 4-6-2-1-x | 0:2/0:5 |
| 10 | Starphistocated | 6 | 53.0 | A Collett | J Thompson | 2-1-x-5-2 | 0:2/1:5 |
| 11 | Heat Missile | 3 | 53.0 | T Clark | Waterhouse/Bott | x-6-8-1-8 | 0:1/0:1 |
| 12 | Placid Pearl | 8 | 53.0 | R King | M Smith | 4-3-3-1-7 | 1:2/0:0 |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Unleeshing posted the fastest 1600m time (95.16s Randwick) but carries a wide barrier penalty. Quietness ran 95.89s in a BM88 at this track/distance carrying 58.5kg - strong adjusted figure.
Pace: MODERATE scenario expected. No dominant leaders - Movin Out and Heat Missile likely to press forward from inside barriers. Mid-race tempo should suit on-pacers and one-off runners. Quietness and Pinito can settle handy from inside draws.
Class: Quietness has proven BM88 form at this exact track and distance (3rd beaten 0.01L). Pinito rising from CL1/BM72 through stakes grade - class level untested at BM88 but talented filly. Heat Missile up from BM72. Starphistocated a big class rise from BM72.
Bias: Neutral track bias with LOW confidence. Good 4 with rain around may deteriorate. Quietness has strong good track record (5/13 wins), handles all conditions. Inside barriers slightly preferred in wet conditions.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Quietness is the clear value play at $10. This 6yo has extraordinary consistency (90% place rate career, 5/20 wins) and has run in this exact race class at this track/distance before, finishing 3rd beaten just 0.01L in a BM88 1600m at Randwick. The 129-day break is offset by two barrier trials and the proven freshness profile of trainer O’Shea/Charlton. Tommy Berry is an elite jockey booking, barrier 2 is ideal, and the place specialist score (3.57x) makes the each-way proposition highly attractive at +15.6% EW EV. The market is fixated on the two short-priced runners (Pinito and Unleeshing), both of whom are underlays on our assessment.
KEY RISKS
- 129-day spell - last competitive run was Oct 2025; two barrier trials (3rd, 4th) show fitness but not race peak
- 0:2 at 1600m (no wins at the distance) though extremely close margins in both runs
- Top weight (58.5kg) vs mares on 53kg is a 5.5kg spread in a competitive BM88
EW VALUE DETAIL
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Edge | +20.0% |
| EW EV | +15.6% |
| Place Prob | 34.2% |
| Place Specialist | 3.57x (STRONG) |
| Place Odds | $2.75 |
| Path | A+B (Odds $10, EW EV +15.6%, Specialist 3.57x) |
kelly: 0.56% | ev: +$0.16/u | win_edge: +20.0% | ew_ev: +15.6% source: sportsbetform.com.au