Randwick R9 | 1300m Canterbury Stakes (G1)
Sat 07 Mar | 5:15pm | 10r | Good 4
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #1 GRINGOTTS @ $11.00 - 1.1u EW STRONG_VALUE: #9 NAPOLEONIC @ $11.00 - 0.8u EW
Joliestar is the deserved favourite but $2.20 is too short for a mare who has never raced beyond 1200m at G1 level. The value sits with the each-way plays underneath.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gringotts | $11.00 | 68.0 | 13% | +43% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.08% |
| 9 | Napoleonic | $11.00 | 61.0 | 12% | +32% | STRONG_VALUE | 0.80% |
| 6 | Joliestar | $2.20 | 62.0 | 38% | -16% | WATCH (UL) | - |
| 3 | Linebacker | $11.00 | 52.0 | 11% | +21% | VALUE | 0.53% |
| 4 | Yorkshire | $13.00 | 48.0 | 9% | +17% | WATCH | 0.35% |
| 7 | Lady Shenandoah | $4.60 | 48.0 | 15% | -31% | WATCH (UL) | - |
| 8 | Beiwacht | $9.00 | 32.0 | 8% | -28% | PASS | - |
| 2 | Headley Grange | $27.00 | 28.0 | 4% | +8% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Nepotism | $67.00 | 22.0 | 2% | -34% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Encap | $81.00 | 18.0 | 2% | +62% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Class | Form | Pace | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gringotts | 8 | $11 | 110 | 52118 | GOOD | 0% | Hot | 68 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 2 | Headley Grange | 10 | $27 | 100 | 61118 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 28 | PASS |
| 3 | Linebacker | 6 | $11 | 105 | 8x718 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 52 | VALUE |
| 4 | Yorkshire | 5 | $13 | 100 | 1x118 | GOOD | 0% | Neutral | 48 | WATCH |
| 5 | Encap | 1 | $81 | 75 | x6497 | POOR | 0% | Cold | 18 | PASS |
| 6 | Joliestar | 4 | $2.20 | 115 | x1538 | GOOD | 0% | Hot | 62 | WATCH |
| 7 | Lady Shenandoah | 9 | $4.60 | 110 | 24728 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 48 | WATCH |
| 8 | Beiwacht | 3 | $9 | 95 | 32148 | OK | 0% | Neutral | 32 | PASS |
| 9 | Napoleonic | 7 | $11 | 90 | 14128 | GOOD | 0% | Neutral | 61 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 10 | Nepotism | 2 | $67 | 85 | x9877 | POOR | 0% | Cold | 22 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Joliestar posted the best raw figures (Expressway 69.06s/1200m) but untested at 1300m G1. Gringotts has The Gong (G3 1600m) and Open Quality wins showing high-class speed figures. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. Joliestar, Gringotts and Yorkshire likely to sit handy. Napoleonic will settle midfield and finish strongly - third-up pattern ideal. Class: Joliestar (Expressway, The Shorts, Everest 5th) and Gringotts (The Gong, Open Quality) have the strongest class profiles. Napoleonic (Red Anchor, Hobartville 2nd) is rapidly rising. Bias: Good 4, no significant track bias detected. Rail position not specified. Neutral assessment.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Gringotts (#1, $11 EW): The Ciaron Maher gelding is a class act - 12 wins from 26 starts, The Gong winner, and 81% place rate. First-up over 1300m is the query, but he won fresh at Wyong over 1200m and has Berry booked. At $11 he offers +43% edge with 37% place probability. The market is underrating his ability to run a race fresh despite 84 days off. EW_EV +36%.
Napoleonic (#9, $11 EW): Progressive 3yo in the sweet spot third-up. Won the Red Anchor by 4+ lengths, runner-up in Hobartville (G2, 1400m) behind a quality horse. The 1300m suits as a stepping stone and he’s proven at this distance level. +32% edge with strong EW value (+22%).
KEY RISKS
- Gringotts has never won at 1300m (0/2) and is first-up after 84 days - barrier 8 adds positional risk
- Napoleonic has limited course form (1 start at Randwick for 2nd) and steps up to G1 for the first time
- If track deteriorates to Soft with rain forecast, Joliestar’s soft form (1/5) and Lady Shenandoah’s (0/2) become factors
EACH-WAY VALUE
| # | Horse | Win Odds | Place Odds | Win% | Place% | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gringotts | $11.00 | $2.60 | 13% | 37% | +36.3% | STRONG EW |
| 9 | Napoleonic | $11.00 | $2.60 | 12% | 32% | +22.0% | STRONG EW |
| 4 | Yorkshire | $13.00 | $2.88 | 9% | 33% | +24.5% | STRONG EW |
| 3 | Linebacker | $11.00 | $2.60 | 11% | 29% | +11.3% | EW VALUE |
EXPERT SUPPORT
| Source | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Pick 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Sporting Base | Lady Shenandoah | Joliestar | Gringotts |
| Back A Winner | Joliestar | Napoleonic | Lady Shenandoah |
| Bets.com.au | Joliestar | Linebacker | Lady Shenandoah |
| Joliestar 100% (3/3) | Lady Shenandoah 100% (3/3) | Napoleonic 67% (2/3) | Gringotts 67% (2/3) |
gringotts: kelly 1.08% | ew_ev: +36.3% | score: 68.0/100 napoleonic: kelly 0.80% | ew_ev: +22.0% | score: 61.0/100