Launceston R6 | 1400m BM64

Fri 20 Mar | 12:05pm | 9r (2 scr) | Good 4 | Rain 6C

ACTION

NO BET - Favourite untested at 1400m and on Good ground; no alternative offers sufficient edge at current odds.

EDGE TABLE

#	Horse	Odds	Score	Win%	Edge	Tier	Kelly
5	Artillery Fire	2.60	71.0	26.7%	-30.6%	WATCH	-
2	Azonto	4.80	64.0	17.2%	-17.4%	WATCH	-
3	Bayside	5.50	56.0	12.9%	-29.1%	WATCH	-
7	Jenni The Cat	6.50	55.0	11.6%	-24.6%	WATCH	-
1	Royal Infantry	11.00	52.0	10.0%	+10.0%	WATCH	-
6	Bellsprout	16.00	47.0	6.2%	-0.8%	PASS	-
4	Tribal Council	12.00	45.0	6.3%	-24.4%	PASS	-
9	Sky Eagle	21.00	45.0	5.2%	+9.2%	PASS	-
8	Coastal Strike	16.00	44.0	5.4%	-13.6%	PASS	-

FIELD ANALYSIS

#	Horse	Bar	Odds	SpFig	Pace	Class	Bias	Conn	Score	Tier
5	Artillery Fire	1	2.60	70	GOOD	72	0%	Neutral	71.0	WATCH
2	Azonto	11	4.80	68	OK	72	0%	Neutral	64.0	WATCH
3	Bayside	4	5.50	65	OK	70	0%	Neutral	56.0	WATCH
7	Jenni The Cat	3	6.50	62	GOOD	68	0%	Neutral	55.0	WATCH
1	Royal Infantry	10	11.00	67	OK	70	0%	Neutral	52.0	WATCH
6	Bellsprout	7	16.00	60	OK	65	0%	Neutral	47.0	PASS
4	Tribal Council	2	12.00	58	OK	62	0%	Neutral	45.0	PASS
9	Sky Eagle	9	21.00	60	POOR	62	0%	Neutral	45.0	PASS
8	Coastal Strike	5	16.00	62	OK	65	0%	Neutral	44.0	PASS

ANALYSIS

Speed: Artillery Fire posted the best recent figure (70) via a dominant 2.5L CL1 win at Launceston 1220m; Azonto and Royal Infantry close on 67-68 from the same BM64 1200m race here on 25/02. Pace: MODERATE - Artillery Fire (bar 1) and Jenni The Cat (bar 3) likely to press forward; enough speed for honest tempo without burning. Midfield runners get a fair run. Class: BM64 provincial. Artillery Fire and Jenni The Cat rising from CL1; Azonto and Royal Infantry proven at this level. Tribal Council making biggest class jump (MDN/CL1 to BM64). Bias: Neutral on both style and barrier; LOW confidence. Track Good 4 with rain forecast - could deteriorate to Soft 5+ during the day.

KEY CONTENDERS

#5 Artillery Fire ($2.60 FAV) - Top-rated on ability. Won last by 2.5L at Launceston, course specialist (6:2). But NEVER raced at 1400m (longest 1220m) and ALL 10 career starts on Soft ground. Today’s Good 4 is a complete unknown. At $2.60 these unknowns are not priced in. WATCH.

#2 Azonto ($4.80) - Most consistent horse in the field: 53% career place rate, and on Good ground a stunning 5:1-5 (100% place rate). Proven at course (8:1) and distance (3:1 at 1400m). Wide barrier 11 is the only negative, though less punishing in a 9-horse field. Best each-way proposition if wanting action.

#7 Jenni The Cat ($6.50) - Won at this exact course and distance (Launceston 1400m CL1) by 2.25L in January. But last two starts 7th both times when tried over longer trips (1600m, 2020m). The drop back to 1400m is the right move. Concern: 40-day break, all runs on Soft.

#1 Royal Infantry ($11) - The ONLY horse in the field to have won at 1400m on Good ground (83.72s at Camperdown). Strong Good track record (13:2-3). Ran 4th in same BM64 at Launceston as Azonto last start, beaten just 0.5L. Wide barrier 10 and erratic form (1-6-9-1-6-4) cap confidence. Marginal mathematical edge at $11 but inconsistency prevents a bet.

SURFACE WATCH

Critical factor: most of the field (Artillery Fire, Tribal Council, Bayside, Jenni The Cat) have ZERO starts on Good ground. With rain, track could move to Soft 5 during the day:

If Good 4 holds: Azonto (5:1-5 on Good) and Royal Infantry (13:2-3 on Good) benefit most
If deteriorates to Soft: Artillery Fire and the soft-track specialists get the advantage

KEY RISKS

Favourite Artillery Fire untested at 1400m and on Good ground - race hinges on whether it handles both
Rain could change the surface mid-meeting, invalidating Good-track analysis
Limited expert data (1 source only) reduces confidence in market assessment

no bet | best proposition: azonto ew if odds drift to $5.50+ | score: 64.0/100